With yesterday’s history lesson well and truly in the memory banks, let us now focus our energies on the present. Well, the recent past and immediate future to be more precise. Who has the form and fitness to take home the bacon on Sunday ?

Clint Robinson (Australia)

Strangely, the overwhelming favourite for the men’s race is a man who has never won before - in spite of four previous attempts. 36 year old Clint Robinson has won everything in his paddling history ... world championships, Olympic Games (a medal of every colour from 5 separate appearances) and so many Australian Surf Life Saving ski crowns that his record of victories (13 titles and counting) might never be surpassed, (although I did also say that about Michael Johnson’s 19.32 second 200m time). Everything, that is, except Molokai.

Not that Robinson’s previous efforts have been bad - far from it. His first attempt was way back in 1989 as a 16 year old ! In 1994 on his second attempt, he came 2nd behind Dean Gardiner who set a (then) course record in the process. Fast forward another 9 years to his next attempt and it was the fabled 2003 race, where Deano and Oscar pushed themselves to the brink in the quest for title number 10. The postscript to that race was that Clint was right up there, before fading in the last hour to finish 3rd. His last attempt was in 2006 when again he finished 3rd, this time behind Clint Pretorious and Oscar Chalupsky.

His more recent form is even more impressive, with a staggering 3+ minute victory over the field in January’s Perth World Cup – “The Doctor”. Considering this race was only 23km in length, the margin is significant indeed, and he followed it up with another win in the Bridge To Beach in March. The only questions centre on his ability to go the distance – his Olympic gold medal came in the K1 1000 – although it would be a very brave man to tip against him.

Lewis Laughlin (Tahiti)

For some inexplicable reason, when experienced elite race Lewis Laughlin won Molokai in 2007, it was deemed to be a surprise. There were murmurings (untrue and probably libellous) of support boat wake riding, which surely must have soured the achievement, but the biggest question mark was over the race itself. It was so different (9km longer, flat, hot) to the normal conditions, that Lewis’s result had been put down to the atypical day and the fact that the “real” downwind specialists couldn’t utilise their skills.

How wrong they were when he repeated the feat in 2008 ! Conditions were lumpier, the course was back to normal and yet he managed to “surprise” the field by winning again. Let us all here at Oceanpaddler.com let the world know that if he does win again in 2009 – and it is a distinct possibility – that it won’t be a surprise. The man deserves some respect !

Hank McGregor (South Africa)

Hank has won, well, pretty much everything. Except - very much like Clint Robinson – Molokai ... and it speaks volumes about the fickleness and difficulty of the race that neither Robinson nor McGregor have won there. Hank is of course a world flat water marathon champion (well suited if it is a flat day), has won the prestigious Port Elizabeth to East London ultra-marathon (well suited to the long races) and has won or podium’ed at more World Cup races than you can poke a stick at (well suited to short ones). On top of this, he has in fact been runner up at Molokai for the past 2 years. With the absence of both Chalupsky’s, Clint Pretorius and Dawid Mocke, Hank is South Africa’s great hope for the 2009 edition.

Dean Gardiner

You won’t hear Deano talking up his chances much, but it would be remiss of us not to include him in the calculations and take the opportunity to embarrass him just a smidgeon. The facts are he is well suited to this race having won it 9 times and the bigger the conditions are, the better. While Deano famously loves the odd beer or three and claims not to train much, spies have spotted him doing more than his fair share with the local Sydney crew. There are more than a few who claim Dean is the best downwind paddler going around – a claim that would be hotly contested by a few we might add – so if the surf’s up, watch out ... it could be number 10.

The others

Despite South Africa’s weak (in number) showing, there are a lot of good paddlers out there now, and the sport itself has more depth than probably ever before. At least four more Australians are right in the mix, if not for victory, then at least for a top 5 finish. Tim Jacobs probably deserves his own section above, and must be considered seriously for the win: he finished 3rd last year, won in Dubai and is apparently training up a storm. No surprise if he gets up on Sunday. Dave Kissane, Marty Kenny and Ash Nesbitt also all deserve significant respect with high previous finishes and excellent results in other races around the world.

The reality is that Molokai is an unpredictable race with many external factors also involved. It just might be someone else entirely takes home the coveted title. And that wouldn’t be a surprise either ...

The Molokai World Championships will be held in Hawaii on Sunday 17th May, 2009